100% renewable scenarios

In 2014, the European Commission, through its action framework for climate and energy, and France, through its law on energy transition and green growth, proposed renewable energy penetration targets in 2030 , especially for the electrical sector.

To explore the feasibility of such objectives, we have conducted several studies evaluating the conditions of penetration of renewable in France.

  1. Krakowski, V., Assoumou, E., Mazauric, V., Maïzi, N., 2016. Feasible path toward 40% - 100% renewable energy shares for power supply in France by 2050: A prospective analysis. Applied Energy 171. 501-522.
  2. Krakowski, V., Assoumou, E., Maïzi, N., Enjeux d’une transition vers une production d’électricité 100% renouvelable en France, dans Revue de l’Energie, No 627 (Septembre/Octobre 2015), pp. 381-394, 2015.

We have extracted three scenarios 100% renewable, not presuming their feasibility, but for which we propose here to explore the electric mix.

They are based on different constraints concerning the authorization of imports, or the biomass resource deposit, which makes it possible to consider various options in 2050.

The Ref100ENR scenario has the constraint of reaching 100% renewable for electricity generation in 2050 with a time profile respecting a transition to 40% of electricity production in 2030.

The 100ENR-HighBIOM scenario introduces additional resources as shown in the table below:

Mtep

Reference scenarios

Variant high biomass potential

Year

Wood

Biogas

Municipal waste

Wood

Biogas

Municipal waste

2012

0.42

0.33

2.30

0.42

0.33

2.30

2030

1.19

1.23

2.30

16.00

5.80

2.30

2050

1.30

1.30

2.30

17.10

8.80

2.30

The 100ENR-NoIMP scenario prohibits the use of imports in 2050 to satisfy the 100% renewable constraint..

 


 

The interactive dashboard below provides an overview of the evolution of electricity production by type of technology.

 

 


 

Here you can explore the same scenarios with a monthly granularity and in particular see the effect of introducing a critical week.

 


 

What are the evolutions in terms of power demand, use of demand-response (endogenous to the model) and exchanges? Some elements of medium-term answer with the following board.

 


 

Let us finally observe what happens on the longer term when the constraint becomes stricter!