Consolidate the plateform for prospective tools

The main vocation of the MPDD Chair is to build numerical tools capable of producing coherent images of the future and transition pathways to these images in order to inform decision-makers in the public and private sectors about the mid-, long- and very long-term consequences of decisions made today. At the heart of the measure is the connection between optimization models and hybrid general equilibrium models. Its objective is to ensure:

  1. dialogue between engineering and economic approaches,
  2. consideration of the interfaces between the energy sector, other sectors of activity concerned by sustainable development issues, and macroeconomic dynamics, and
  3. the capacity to work at several geographic levels and reconcile different times scales.

Building up the capacity for dialogue between engineering and economic models will work in two directions:

  1. a new wave of ‘hybrid’ accounting matrix construction, ensuring compatibility between social accounting, energy balances, physical indicators of activity and data on income distribution;
  2. use of the range of regional TIMES versions and the potential of the macro linkage MarkAl-MACRO and IMACLIM-S/Nexus, in particular after finalizing the TIAM – IMACLIM-S coupling for Europe.

Developing interfaces between energy and other domains of activity will center on:

  • Integrating choices on water usage in several sectors (energy, industry, agriculture) to explore the resulting conflicts, and the ways in which climate change is likely to exacerbate them;
  • More detailed analysis in models of biofuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in order to identify the constraints to employing these technical methods at several scales, and examine how the allocation of a growing amount of land for non-food usage impacts on land and food prices;
  •  Integrating urban dynamics (urban area models and models of city systems) to understand how mobility requirements develop, the technical coherence between urban design and transport mode choices and in fine the demand for standard fuel. The challenge is, in addition to considering energy, property and work markets in the same framework, to explicitly introduce transport infrastructures and their impact on spatial dynamics at inter- and intra-urban scale and international scale;
  • Developing a minimal representation of i) financial circuits to integrate capital flows and shortfalls between the constitution of savings and their reinvestment in industrial activities and infrastructures and ii) state debts to take into account constraints on public funding.

The spatialization and connection of time scales will aim to understand the implications of policies that necessarily act at several levels, from global to local, and the impact of different kinds of phenomena. This integration nevertheless brings up significant methodological obstacles that we will tackle via three main themes:

  1. Modeling networks to manage intermittent electricity production sources [cf. section II] by reconciling short- and long-term approaches and spatial scales;
  2. The consideration of transport facilities and land heterogeneity;
  3. “Downscaling” global general equilibrium models to national-scale equilibrium models