Doctoral thesis


Seungwoo KANG, La place de la bioénergie dans un monde sobre en carbone : Analyse prospective et développement de la filière biomasse dans le modèle TIAM-FR, sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI et Sandrine SELOSSE, Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 22 décembre 2017
With growing concerns about environment, countries are increasing efforts to reduce dependency on fossil energy soruces, the major source of CO2, by replacing them with clearner energy sources including bioenergy. Under the global agremment on climate change mitigaition, the bioenergy is being highlighted as possible way of derabonization of our society. The work of this thesis concentrates on the perspectives of bioenergy development aiming  to analyze the evolution of bioenergy production regrading stimulous policies, global exchange of biomass resources and the sustainable consummation of bioenergy in a long term in the context of decarbonization of societies as well as on the bioenergy chain development in global energy system optimization model. This manuscript is structured in four chapters. The first chapter presents the actuel position of bioenergy and bioenergy development strategy as well as the presentation of prospective modelling approach.   The second chapter is dedicated to present the developments effectuated for the bioenergy chain in the model TIAM-FR. The thirs chapter shows our work regarding the evaluation of biomass resources. Lastly, the role of bioenergy in climate change mitigation context has been discussed in the last chapter.
Keywords: Long-term modeling; Bioenergies; Energy system; Climate policy; TIAM-FR
Thomas LE GALLIC, Penser nos futurs modes de vie dans les démarches de prospective énergétique : proposition d’une approche par la modélisation, sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI et Edi ASSOUMOU, Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, 21 décembre 2017
Keywords: Prospective, modélisation, modes de vie, systéme énergétique, société bas carbone

Vincent Krakowski, Intégration du renouvelable et stratégie de déploiement du réseau électrique: réconciliation d'échelles spatio-temporelles dans des exercices prospectifs de long terme, sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI, Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Décembre 2016
Power systems are currently facing several issues in order to evolve and integrate less carbon-heavy, and potentially more local, production. Prospective model-based analysis is a precious tool for exploring the possible long-term developments of these systems and comparing their advantages and disadvantages. However, to ensure relevance, it is important to reconcile the spatial and temporal phenomena that occur at various scales. Power system management depends on constantly maintaining a complex supply-demand balance. Meeting this challenge requires anticipating demand variations and power plant availability, combined with regulation systems to resolve remaining discrepancies. These regulations are activated in from a few seconds up to several hours. On shorter timescales, power systems show inherent robustness: the power grid creates an electromagnetic coupling between synchronous machines allowing them to share their inertia. This inertia, which takes the form of kinetic energy, is instantaneously available to face natural demand or supply fluctuations. To ensure that proposed long-term scenarios are consistent with the robustness requirements of power systems, which enable their management, this robustness must be assessed using prospective modeling. In this work, we propose an indicator, calculable within prospective studies, which assesses power system stability, namely its ability to return to synchronism after a perturbation. This indicator is based on an aggregated description of the transportation power grid and describes the electromagnetic coupling brought by the power grid. When combined with a bottom-up model from the MARKAL/TIMES family describing the French power system, this synchronism indicator, along with another indicator quantifying the available kinetic reserve, enables us to assess the consequences of renewable penetration, especially in terms of power system robustness.
Keywords: Power system; Renewable energy; Energy prospective; Transient stability; Kuramoto
Elena Stolyarova, Rénovation énergétique de l'habitat en France : analyse microéconométrique du choix des ménages. Sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI, Université de recherche Paris Sciences et Lettres - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Avril 2016
Little research has been done to date onFrench households' preferences for energy retrofits in the dwelling. However, the economic role of these choices is crucial for implementing an effective and realistic energy policy in the residential sector, both in terms of proposed aid and targets. Are households interested in retrofits with high energy-savings potential? How much are they willing to pay and is it sufficient to cover the up-front costs? How many households have no choice of heating system, and what is their profile? The Essay sets out to answer these questions empirically using discrete choice models. It starts by analyzing the technical, socio-demographic and spatial constraints that face households and create barriers to domestic energy choices. A method to detect household constraint is devised and applied to the choice of space heating system in 2006 and 2013. The second stage analyzes household preferences for heating equipment and retrofits. This second part is based on a discrete choice experiment specially carried out for this research among 2,000 households. This work sheds light on households' preferences and heterogeneity, as well as their willingness to pay, the implicit discount rate and other economic impacts
Keywords: Energy efficiency; Households; Residential sector; Stated preferences; Discrete choice models

François Briens, La décroissance au prisme de la modélisation prospective : Exploration macroéconomique d’une alternative paradigmatique. Sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI, Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Décembre  2015.
The development paths followed by industrial societies have led them in front of complex socioeconomic, democratic and environmental crises, which question the relevance of economic growth, either as a goal in itself, or as a way to achieve “development”. With the emergence of the Degrowth movement at the beginning of the 21st century, the call for transitions towards sustainable “post-growth societies” is now consolidating into a multifaceted political project. For the “wealthiest” countries, where the ecological footprint per capita is greater than the global sustainable level, this project may be envisioned as a voluntary, socially sustainable, equitable and smooth downscaling of production and consumption, and thus throughput, to an environmentally sustainable level. Such a project raises numerous questions, for instance: what concrete proposals could initiate such a transition? What could they induce in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste, or greenhouse gas emission mitigation? Etc. In this research, we offer to discuss such questions with the help of prospective modeling. Our approach builds upon a series of interviews, conducted with actors more or less involved in the Degrowth movement. These interviews are aimed at collecting detailed and quantified visions or narratives about what Degrowth, or –more broadly speaking– transitions towards sustainable and desirable societies could look like for France in the mind of participants, especially in terms of institutions, lifestyles and consumption patterns. In parallel, we have designed and developed a specific dynamic simulation model of the French economy, featuring a high level of detail, based on input-output analysis, and built using public data. Using this macroeconomic tool, we investigate the possible outcomes of different scenarios over the long term (2060), including those inferred from the interviews, in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste and atmospheric emissions. Our results highlight the importance of cultural, social, behavioral and “non-technical” factors, stress the potential of various degrowth proposals, and recall the critical need for the collective elaboration of a societal project. In this perspective, our modeling approach provides a simple, yet powerful tool for common understanding and collective deliberation
Keywords: Prospective modelling, degrowth, macroeconomics, participative scénario building, social metabolism, social transition
Sébastien Postic, Long-term energy prospective modeling for South America. Application to international climate negotiations. Sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI et Alejandro JOFRE (Universidad de Chile), et le co-encadrement de Sandrine SELOSSE. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Décembre  2015.
Together, Central and South America and the Caribbean represent more than 450 million people and 12% of the Earth’s total emerged land. The region stands out in the global energy landscape for the outstanding contribution of renewable sources to its energy production. Maintaining this level of renewable energy in the future might prove a challenging task, as historical energy sources run into sustainability issues and new options still depend on public support schemes. Climate change is also a region-scale concern: the continent’s emissions per capita are above the global average, and the region is also likely to be one of the most impacted by climate change. Despite shared strengths and concerns, South America appears as a highly heterogeneous and fragmented continent. The region’s physical layout is a stumbling block for regional integration. The historical evolution has created strong disparities between national energy sectors. Various attempts to cooperate on transnational infrastructure have ended up as costly failures in past years. The aim of this PhD work was to develop a mathematical model adapted to the study of long-term energy issues in South America. This model, TIMES-América Latina y el Caribe, was then applied to studying the impact of national climate policies on regional energy. This document is divided in five chapters. Chapter 1 offers a historical overview of South America’s history with a focus on the energy sector, followed by a description of the specificities and challenges of South American energy today. Chapter 2 presents the concepts of prospective and scenario modeling, along with a historical overview and a state-of-the-art of energy prospective in South America. Chapter 3 details the model’s main features: its ten-region disaggregation, its modeling rules and the structure and main assumptions for supply and demand, including macroeconomic drivers, resource potentials, and extraction costs. Chapter 4 presents the climate change issue and its implications for South America; it also describes the international climate negotiations, from their beginning in 1972 to the current tentative contributions. Finally, chapter 5 analyses the impacts of these pledges on South America’s energy sector, and the contribution of the latter to fulfilling these pledges
Keywords: TIMES model, Energy prospective, South America
Paul Hugues, Stratégies technologique et réglementaire de déploiement des filières bioénergies françaises. Sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI et Edi ASSOUMOU et le co-encadrement de Julien ROUSSEAU et Jean-François ROUS (AVRIL), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Mars. 2015.
In France, bioenergy sector has been fostered because they are a solution to current energetic, economic, and environmental issues but it is not competitive with fossil fuels yet. However, its future is facing many uncertainties and controversial point about its real benefits for the society. The goal of this PhD thesis is to assess these uncertainties using a prospective model describing French bioenergy sector from 2010 to 2050. It calculates optimal technological pathways according to several technical, economic and environmental constraints. With many contrasting scenarios, we investigate the future of bioenergy sector: potential deployment, competing uses, mitigation effort.
Keywords : Outlook; Bioenergy; Biofuels; MARKAL/TIMES

Stéphanie Bouckaert, Contribution des Smart Grids à la transition énergétique : évaluation dans des scénarios long terme. Sous la direction de Nadia MAÏZI. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, dec. 2013.
In the context of discussions on the energy transition, the general consensus is that part of the solution could come from Smart Grids to deal both with climate and energy issues. Prospective energy systems models may be used to estimate the long-term development of the energy system in order to meet future energy demands while taking into account environmental and technical constraints. These historical models are demand driven and should from now on evolve to considerate future developments of the electricity system. In this study, we have implemented some functionalities related to the concept of Smart Grids in a long-term planning model (demand-side integration, storage, renewable energy). This approach makes it possible to evaluate their benefits separately or collectively, taking into account possible interactions between these functionalities. We have also implemented an indicator reflecting the level of reliability of the electricity system in our model. This additional parameter enables to constrain future electricity systems to ensure a level of reliability identical to the existing one. Our analysis is demonstrated by the case of the Reunion Island, which aims to produce electricity using 100% renewable sources by 2030, and for which Smart Grids functionalities are also potential solutions for reaching this objective
Keywords: Smart Grids – MARKAL/TIMES models – Long-term planning – Reunion island

Henri WAISMAN, Les politiques climatiques entre prix du carbone, rentes pétrolières et dynamiques urbaines, under the direction of Jean-Charles HOURCADE (CNRS), with the co-supervision of Fabio GRAZI, 17 April 2012
This thesis investigates the effects of constraints imposed on economic interactions by limitations due to natural resources, among which oil and urban land play a curcial role in the context of climate change. These dimensions, often neglected in existing analyses, have an ambiguous effect since they suggest both the risk of enhanced costs if carbon limitations reinforce the sub-optimalities caused by pre-existing constraints, but also, conversely, the possibility of co-benefits if the climate policy helps to correct some pre-existing imperfections of socio-economic trajectories. To investigate this issue, an innovative modeling framework of the enrgy-economy interactions is elaborated that embarks the specificities of the deployment of oil production capacities and the issues related to the spatial organization in urban areas. We demonstrate that, beyond the carbon price, the costs of climate policy essentially depend on the sequencing of complementary measures, with a crucial role of spatial policy designed to control transport-related emissions through mobility.
Gondia Seck, Prospective modelling of the Non-Energy Intensive Industry for the evaluation of the impact of Energy Demand Management policies by using the model TIMES - Assessment of the potential of Heat Recovery with Heat Pumps systems (HP) in French Food and Drink industry. Under the direction of Nadia MAÏZI and Gilles GUERASSIMOFF. Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris, Janvier. 2012.
The growing energy prices due to the rarefaction of the fossil fuels and the consideration of the environmental impacts makes inevitable the involvement of industrials to promote energy efficiency policy and emissions reductions. We notice that the Non-energy intensive industry (NEI), by opposition to the energy intensive industry (EI), is expected to play an important role because of their economic and energy importance and its relatively high growth rate. It becomes then a priority target especially since it has been neglected in energy analysis despite the continuing policy interest in energy efficiency and the many reports and book written on the topic. How can NEI contribute effectively to the reduction of the energy consumptions and the CO2 emissions? Which technologies and/or policies should be implemented to reach these objectives? This PhD work is then based on a technical economic optimization of the sectoral energy system, by using a “bottom-up” model with TIMES framework, in a relevant prospective approach of the energy and environmental consequences of MDE policies in NEI. This model relies on a representation by energy end-uses contrary to the EI because of the unsuitability of the approach product/process. As part of this, we analyzed the industrial heat recovery on processes through the deployment of HP in Food & Drink industry, the most important NEI’s sector. Then, this prospective modelling allows observing the shape of investments of HP in response to energy constraints or incentive policies within the mechanism of Energy Savings Certificate or valuation of CO2 emissions. It can give, on one hand, a possibility of study which giving the different adjustment of a tax on gas emissions by the authorities of regulation to reach their environmental and energy objectives in NEI over a medium or long-term horizon. On the other hand, it is very useful as a good decision-making tool by determining differentiated costs for energy savings within the investments of efficient technologies at the highest level of disaggregation for a better sectoral screening.
Keywords: Prospective modelling – Non-energy intensive industry - Industrial heat recovery - Heat pumps systems - MARKAL/TIMES - Energy demand management policy

Mathilde DROUINEAU, Long-term planning using a multi-scale approach: the issue of power system dynamics, under the direction of Nadia MAIZI (MINES ParisTech / CMA) and Vincent MAZAURIC (SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC), December 2011
A reliable power supply is crucial for operating power systems. Defined as the ability of power systems to lock back into a steady-state condition after sudden disturbance (e.g. load or production fluctuations), reliability is usually ensured through appropriate management of voltage and frequency and involves events whose time scales range from a few milliseconds to a few hours. However, energy planning models, which focus on power systems’ long-term development (typically several decades), largely ignore reliability requirements and may consequently provide unrealistic options in this area. Yet this aspect is of tremendous importance, especially when high shares of renewable energy sources, and in particular intermittent energy sources, are expected in electricity production and may threaten supply reliability.
To overcome this drawback, we propose assessing the reliability of supply when evaluating power systems’ long-term development. We achieve a global description of power systems relying on variational principles deduced from thermodynamics. The approach provides two reliability indicators related to the dynamic properties of the whole system, namely the magnetic and kinetic reserves available, thus quantifying in an original way the reliability of power supply for a given production mix.
The relevance of the indicators is demonstrated through a prospective analysis of Reunion Island, which is targeting an electricity production mix with 100% renewable energy sources by 2030. We use a TIMES model to provide the electricity sector’s responses to this scenario and to different assumptions. Results show that the levels of magnetic and kinetic reserves decrease with the integration of renewable energy sources, and that the levels of the reserves are critically low during the day, when intermittent energy sources can represent up to two thirds of the electricity production. This work thereby illustrates how we can use the two indicators to debate the most appropriate conditions for ensuring the reliability of supply, and makes it possible to choose between the targets of decarbonizing the electricity mix and maintaining an expected level of reliability.
Keywords: Long-term planning; power system; reliability of power supply; thermodynamic variational principles ; Reunion Island
Louis-Gaëtan GIRAUDET, Policy instruments for energy conservation: a multidimensional assessment, under the co-direction of Dominique FINON (CNRS) and Philippe QUIRION (CNRS), 28 March 2011
This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of various forms of taxes, subsidies and regulations implemented to correct for market failures that may prevent energy savings. It builds on various approaches, with gradual complexity. First, a standard microeconomic model is developed to compare the static performances of these instruments. Second, the representation of consumer behaviour is strengthened in a model of the residential energy demand for space heating in France, which allows to identify the dynamic mechanisms by which instruments can correct for the main market failures. Third, an empirical evaluation of " white certificate " schemes - tradable energy saving obligations imposed on energy operators - is made from the comparison between the British, Italian and French experiences, taking into account national institutions. The following conclusions can be drawn from these various approaches : (i) energy taxes, by encouraging both energy efficiency investment and sufficiency behaviour, are particularly effective ; (ii) energy efficiency regulations have a significant impact on the diffusion of efficient technologies ; (iii) subsidies to energy efficiency induce a large rebound effect ; (iv) depending on the institutional environment in which they operate, white certificate schemes combine different properties of these instruments. Applied to the French residential building sector, the most effective combination of these instruments does not allow to reach the energy saving target set by the Government.
Keywords: Energy conservation; Dynamic efficiency; White certificate schemes; Tax; Subsidy; Regulation
Jean-Michel CAYLA, Households under carbon constraint. Modeling residential and transports sectors with TIMES in a prospective context, under the direction of Nadia MAIZI (MINES ParisTech / CMA), March 2011
The energy and political context in France suggests that households would have to deal with a strong constraint of CO2 emissions reduction in the next decades. Many questions then arise: Which technologies would enable this level of emission reduction? What policies should be implemented to achieve such a reduction ? What is the impact of these policies on household budget?
This PhD work tries to answer to these issues thanks to a residential and transports sectors TIMES model, which is a bottom-up model based on an optimization paradigm. This model relies on a highly disaggregated representation of households that allows a largely enhanced level of confidence in the results obtained, compared to other bottom-up models. Moreover, thanks to a survey we have launched among 2000 French households we are able to better design household energy consumption behavior. It is thus possible to take into account the constraints faced by the households and the tradeoffs they make between cost and comfort.
This model is very useful for evaluating different policy tools considering their ability to lead to strong reductions and their impact on the household budget. A carbon tax then seems a good way to reduce CO2 emissions and subsidies seem to enhance the impact of the tax and help to reduce its distorting effect on household budget.
Keywords: Household behaviour, prospective modeling, MARKAL/TIMES, residential, transports, carbon constraint

Céline GUIVARCH, Evaluating mitigation costs. The importance of representing second best mechanisms, under the direction of Jean-Charles HOURCADE, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, october 2010
The thesis shows how second-best mechanisms (labour markets rigidities, imperfect foresight) and mechanisms considered as short-term issues (inertia of productive capital, unemployment) induce that (i) mitigation costs are transition costs insofar as policies to reorient investments to low-carbon infrastructures are implemented early to avoid lock-ins in high-carbon development paths; (ii) these transition costs can be significant, in particular for emerging and developing countries.
Therefore, representing real world rigidities in energy-economy-environment models has important implications for the analysis of climate policies. Equalizing carbon prices is not anymore the policy minimizing mitigation costs if a second-best world is considered. The thesis thus illustrates that the package "worldwide carbon price plus compensatory transfers" cannot lead, by itself, to a palatable deal for emerging and developing countries. It insists on the necessity to design alternative policies to open the control variables palette (public investments, infrastructures, fiscal reforms) and allowing specific policies at the local level.