Les Cahiers de la Chaire Modélisation prospective


Working Paper n° 2016-06-24

Gaëlle LE TREUT and Emmanuel COMBET, Climate policy design and the competitiveness of the French industry: A computable general equilibrium analysis

The paper proposes a method to keep benefits from both sectorial and general equilibrium analysis. This method has originally been developed to build a hybrid energy-economy Input-Output Table (IOT) at a regional scale but it can be apply for any quantity flows. The approach consists in combining economic and physical data from sectors analysis with monetary input-output data from national accounts within a consistent and comprehensive "hybrid" accounting system. It goes beyond previous disaggregation techniques only based on economic data. We illustrate the procedure with French data, and we analyse the effects of a unilateral French carbon tax reform using a country-scale CGE model, IMACLIM-S. The results show that keeping aggregated heterogeneous industrial sectors can be misleading when exploring distributive consequences of a carbon price policy...

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Working Paper n° 2016-05-23

Julien LEFEVRE, A description of the IMACLIM-BR model: a modeling framework to assess climate and energy policy in Brazil

The Imaclim modeling approach has been developed at CIRED since the early 90s. At the core of the blueprint has been the objective to build hybrid modeling architectures to articulate energy system and economy-wide representations to explore energy-climate-economy futures. Imaclim-BR is a hybrid CGE modeling platform of the Brazilian economy specifically designed to build consistent projections of the energy-GHG emissions-economy system in Brazil over the medium to long term. It makes it especially possible to assess the macroeconomic implications of price or quantity-based carbon and energy policy. This working paper provides a full description of the IMACLIM-BR model. Section 2 characterizes the model in a compact format with its key equations in order to highlight its main specifics. Section 3 provides a comprehensive description and formulary of the central model version. Section 4 details the specifics of two expanded versions.

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Working Paper n° 2016-04-22

Jules SCHERS, Frédéric GHERSI and Franck LECOCQ, Modelling climate mitigation and economic growth in relation to employment and skills in South Africa

Our paper deals with the interaction between South Africa’s carbon mitigation and employment challenges. We use IMACLIM-SA, an open-economy, ‘hybrid’ CGE model that projects the economy to 2035, disaggregated in 10 sectors and 5 household classes. Our model has low-, medium- and high-skill labour markets with equilibrium unemployment. We highlight problems with using a standard definition of skills as categories of educational attainment and propose three research avenues to improve modelling of skills. We then analyse a carbon tax with 5 revenue recycling options and a “positional” definition of educational attainment. A tax of 100 Rand/tCO2 recycled in sales tax cuts induces GDP and employment gains, but does not reduce inequality. A higher tax is needed to achieve South Africa’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the COP21. Additionally, we find that recycling carbon tax proceeds into investment in skills would already be justified if it induces a slight productivity improvement.

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Working Paper n° 2016-03-21

Seungwoo KANG, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, Methodological long-term analysis of global bioenergy potential

This report presents the methodology investigated in order to make more suitable and relevant the representation of bioenergy resources in the long term bottom up optimization model, TIAM-FR. Indeed, the current simplified representation is not suitable for distinguish different use for each proper bioenergy source. Furthermore, considering the important role of global bioenergy trade in energy system particularly for projecting future energy system, disaggregation of these resources appears as an essential requirement. In this study, based on the complementary purpose of improving the description of the bioenergy chain as well as the necessity of re-estimation of potentials, we focused on development of energy crops and woody biomass chains rather than Industrial wastes, municipal wastes, and landfill gas, which are not currently being traded intra regions for energy uses. In the case of energy crops, otherwise, the higher disaggregation will allow apply crop-specific biofuel policies as limiting the use of edible sources for energy purpose to avoid eventual conflicts with food security issues.

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Working Paper n° 2016-02-20

Sébastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, Energy sector contribution to regional climate action: The case of Latin America

In South America and the Caribbean, a region representing a relevant share of global GHG emissions with a weight of 7.7% in 2011, slightly more than its share of the world’s population (6.9% in 2010), the latest estimates point to a 1.5% to 5% GDP loss by 2050. Particularly, Brazil already ranks fourth in the world when it comes to national contributions to global warming and a strong increase in GHG emissions can be anticipated in the years to come throughout the region on a BAU basis. In this context, quite logically, the region has a relevant role to play in mitigating global emissions. The energy sector, the largest contributor to GHG emission, shows promising potential to achieve climate mitigation worldwide and South American NAMAs consider it extensively.
Given Latin America’s regional specificities, what contributions can its energy sector make to the fight against climate change, and at what cost? This paper investigates this specific aspect of the energy-climate nexus in Latin America through the prism of ongoing climate negotiations. This analysis focuses on the climate commitment of Latin America pledged before the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) asked to publish through the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Paris in December and which led to the signing of a historical global agreement on climate change. We use a bottom-up energy prospective model from the MarkAl/TIMES family with four contrasted scenarios for future climate policies in South America.
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Working Paper n° 2016-01-19

Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, Exploring the biomass carbon capture solution to climate policy: A water impact analysis with TIAM-FR

A sustainable energy future requires a wide range of different mitigation options that can reduce the CO2 emissions. Particularly, renewables and carbon capture and storage appear as preferred or more largely evocated options. The aim of this study is to analyze alternative development paths of the energy system investigating different constraints on the use of CCS and BECCS, under climate policy context, and using the global multiregional optimization model, TIAM-FR. The analyze also focuses on the increasing pressure involved by the development of carbon capture technologies (fossil and biomass) on the water resources. Water and energy are indeed inextricably linked and interdependent sectors. Water requirements of existing and emerging technologies (such as carbon capture technologies) are so necessary to completely assess the water impacts of a developing decarbonizing economy.
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Working Paper n° 2015-04-18

Edi ASSOUMOU, Jean-Paul MARMORAT, Jérôme HOUËL, Valérie ROY, Load curve impact of large electric vehicles fleet in the Paris Ile-de-France region

Pure and Plug-in-Hybrid electric vehicles are promoted in several countries because they can provide an appropriate technological answer to EU's energy and environmental goals. But quantifying their benefit is complex since electromobility poses specific challenges in terms of time scale, sectors coordination and infrastructure. The overall objective of the EV-STEP project was to quantify some of the technical and economic conditions of the development of electrified mobility in Europe by 2030 and beyond. In complement to the EU scale evaluation based on the TIMES pan EU and IMACLIM-P models additional case studies were defined in the EV-STEP project’s methodology to investigate dedicated local issues with a higher level of technical detail. The EV-CAP model developed within EV-STEP is described in the first part, the second part reports insights on the potential load curve impact drawn from the local case study of the Paris Ile de France Region.

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Working Paper n° 2015-03-17

Sandrine SELOSSE, Sébastien POSTIC and Nadia MAÏZI, Energy issue in Latin America face climate challenges: A long-term analysis with TIAM-FR

Latin America presents important energy resources and a relatively low level of CO2 emissions. Energy needs increase and are expected to increase more and more with the objective of development and of energy access. Moreover, Latin America is already impacted by climate change with, for example, first snow, inundation, etc. So to evolve his development in sustainable manner, low carbon strategy has to be developed. This paper focuses on long term analysis of energy climate issues in Latin America and particularly studies the impact of climate policy on its energy system. Solutions to tend toward a decarbonized system are analyzed and a focus is made on Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Notably, an interesting result is the fact that, while the carbon capture and storage option is favored in case of bioplants development, appearing as a first climate-protect option, this is not the case with fossil power plants, and renewables development is preferred, even when BECCS is “excluded”.

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Working Paper n° 2015-02-16

Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, Pending the adoption of an international climate agreement. An overview of the energy-climate regime

After a large awareness and decades of negotiations, a historic climate agreement is waiting to be adopted by all 195 parties at the UNFCCC, in December during the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP 21), in order to provide an answer to the climate issue. We analyze a combination of scenarios to discuss the energy-climate regime inherited from the past negotiations and what can be expected for the future decarbonated system.
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Working Paper n° 2015-01-15

Sébastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE and Nadia MAÏZI, TIMES Prospective Modeling for South America

This paper presents the construction TIMES-America Latina y el Caribe, the TIMES regional model dedicated to Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Under update


Working Paper n° 2014-02-14

Sandrine SELOSSE and Nicolas GARCIA, CCS development for a low carbon future

Giving the challenge of mitigating the effects of climate change and so reducing carbon emissions, this study highlights the possible technological trajectories in a future climate regime and particularly the role of carbon capture and storage. This research is developed with TIAM-FR, a bottom-up optimization model describing the world energy system expressed by regions and sectors in great detail of current and future technologies.
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Working Paper n° 2014-01-13

Ruben BIBAS and Jean-Charles HOURCADE, Transitions énergétiques en France : enseignements d'exercices de prospective

Contribution au débat national sur la transition énergétique.
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Working Paper n° 2013-05-12

Bérengère LEGENDRE and Olivia RICCI, Measuring fuel poverty in France: which households are the most vulnerable?

Fuel poverty is a growing concern in France. Following the hike in energy prices that started in 2004, the problem of energy affordability for low-income households entered the political debate with the “Grenelle de l’environnement” in 2007. According to the standard UK definition (10% ratio) 3.4 million households were subject to fuel poverty in France in 2006. We question the way fuel poverty is currently measured and compare the impact of alternative measurement approaches on the extent and composition of fuel poverty in France. Then, we identify and characterize vulnerable households that are not ordinarily poor, but can be pushed into poverty because of their fuel bills. The incidence, depth and severity of poverty is measured with the Foster, Greer and Thorbecke indicator. Furthermore, econometric models are used to analyze which factors influence the probability of vulnerable households to fall into poverty. The study indicates that the proportion of fuel poor people and their characteristics differ significantly depending on the fuel poverty measure chosen. The econometric results show that the probability of falling into poverty is higher for those who are retired living alone, rent their home, use an individual boiler for heating, and cook with butane or propane.
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Working Paper n° 2013-04-11

Hélène LE CADRE et Mathilde DIDIER, Quantifying the Impact of Wind Energy on Market Coupling

In a context of market coupling, we study analytically the impact of wind farm concentration and of the uncertainty resulting from the introduction of renewable energy on the procurement total cost, on the market welfare and on the ratio of renewable procurements to conventional supplies. Markets having incomplete information on the quantities of renewable energy produced by the other markets, we show that the providers have incentives to buy information regarding the variability of the other markets’ productions. Provided this information could be certified and sold by an external operator, we derive analytically the optimal price for such certified information, depending on the required confidence level.
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Working Paper n° 2013-03-10

Hélène LE CADRE et Michaël SOUBRA, Designing Rules for the Capacity Market

In this article, the energy market is a modeled as a Stackelberg game involving three categories of agents: microgrids made of end users sharing the same energy provider, suppliers and generators. The energy production is decentralized involving non-renewables, renewables and demand response performed at the microgrid level. We compute analytically the Nash equilibrium of the game in the generators’ production prices, efforts invested in their capacity, and, in the suppliers’ energy orders. Furthermore, we prove that the generators’ and the demand response prices can be obtained as functions of the price paid by the end users per unit of demand. Finally, coupling the energy and the capacity markets, we design rules for the capacity market guaranteeing the system wide balance and the market opening to new investors while avoiding moral hazard and abuse of dominant positions.
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Working Paper n° 2013-02-09

Julien LEFEVRE, Emmanuel COMBET et Jean-Charles HOURCADE, Construction de matrices entrées-sorties en indicateurs physiques et en valeur monétaire pour les modèles d’équilibre général hybrides : application à l’économie brésilienne

Ce papier développe une méthodologie de mise en cohérence des données économiques (comptes nationaux) avec les données des bilans de « matière » (bilans énergétiques, etc.) pour calibrer les modèles d’équilibre général des interfaces économie-énergie-environnement. Les difficultés à combiner ces systèmes statistiques, souvent passées sous silence dans les modèles existants, nous incitent à remobiliser les exigences théoriques de la description des flux économiques à la fois en valeur monétaire et en volumes « physiques ». Il en résulte une méthode d’hybridation originale des données qui consiste à s’appuyer sur les flux de matière et des données de prix pour délimiter le circuit des biens matériels au sein du système économique sans altérer la taille de ce dernier. Cette procédure sera appliquée pour construire un tableau entrées-sorties hybride à 18 secteurs pour le Brésil en 2005.
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Working Paper n° 2013-01-08

Olivia RICCI and Sandrine SELOSSE, A cost analysis of the Copenhagen emission reduction pledges

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, countries have submitted emissions reduction pledges for 2020. Using a long term optimization model (TIAM-FR), we evaluate the implications of these submissions for emission reductions, carbon prices and total cost of the energy system. Our study finds that the pledges are not sufficient to meet the global recommended 2-2.4°C objective. Furthermore, reaching the overall 2°-2.4C objective would involve significant costs for China and India that explains the difficulty of international negotiations.

Keywords: Global warming, Copenhagen Accord, long term optimization model, abatement cost
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Working Paper n° 2012-04-07

Sandrine SELOSSE, Olivia RICCI and Nadia MAIZI, Fukushima’s impact on the European power sector: A long-term policy analysis using TIAM-FR

The accident in Fukushima, Japan, in March 2011 has reactivated the discussion on how to meet ambitious climate mitigation objectives as some European countries reconsider the contribution of nuclear power in their energy mix. This study evaluates the impact of nuclear power reduction in Europe on the electricity mix under carbon emission reduction scenarios while considering the availability of carbon capture and storage technological options. The potential cost of carbon reduction is also addressed using the bottom-up optimization model TIAM-FR. The results suggest that CCS technologies constitute an interesting option in a case of stringent climate targets and limited nuclear electricity. However, the unavailability of CCS technologies induces a significant increase in carbon cost to achieve the climate policy.

Keywords: Energy modeling ; European Union policies ; Climate change ; TIAM-FR; Nuclear phase out; Carbon Capture and Storage, Bioenergies
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Working Paper n° 2012-03-06

Olivia RICCI and Sandrine SELOSSE, Achieving negative emissions in the power sector: A technological and regional approach with TIAM-FR

It seems increasingly likely that atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration will overshoot the recommended 400 ppmC02 target. Therefore, it may become necessary to use bioenergy with carbon capture and storage technologies (BECCS) to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. This study evaluates the possible deployment of BECCS in the power sector with the bottom-up multiregional op-timization model TIAM-FR. The results of the long term modeling exercise sug-gest that to achieve a stringent target, BECCS technology represents an environ-mentally and economically viable option. The regional analyze shows that industrialized countries will develop CCS mainly on biomass sources while CCS on fossil fuel is largely deployed in fast developing countries.

Keywords: Bioenergies, Carbon capture and storage, Long term modeling, Electricity, Environmental policies
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Working Paper n° 2012-02-05

Nadia MAIZI et Edi ASSOUMOU, Scénarios prospectifs France à l'horizon 2050, CMA, MINES ParisTech

Le Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l’Ecole des Mines de Paris, dans le cadre de la Chaire ParisTech Modélisation Prospective au service du Développement Durable, propose une série d’exercices prospectifs élaborés au moyen de son approche bottom-up du système énergétique basée sur l’utilisation de son modèle TIMES-FR : il permet de réaliser une modélisation technico-économique du système France, déclinée ici principalement sur le secteur électrique. Le terme de notre horizon prospectif est l’année 2050.

Cette étude a été réalisée dans le cadre de la Commission Besson afin d’illustrer différents scénarios définis selon les hypothèses de la DG TRESOR. Nous proposons dans ce document un ensemble de résultats permettant d’analyser ces éléments et variantes.

Il est important de souligner que de nombreux autres scénarios pourraient être envisagés par cette même approche, limitant ou favorisant certaines technologies, et intégrant des mesures plus ou moins coercitives sur le contrôle des émissions de CO2 ou la maîtrise de la demande.
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Working Paper n° 2012-01-04

Fiches argumentaires issues de l'étude "Conditions de l'émergence et impacts macroéconomiques du véhicule électrique en Europe et en Chine"

CIRED : Vogt-Schilb A., Bibas R., Cassen C., Guivarch C. et Hourcade J-C.

Observatoire : Ruet J., Lanckriet E., Kang R., Qi M., Yin Y., Bulcourt A. et Lee A.

Table des matières :

  • Synthèse: Comment justifier un investissement pour le développement de l’électrification des véhicules?
  • Le bénéfice pour les transports de la décarbonisation du mix électrique
  • La disponibilité des véhicules électrifiés, une option réelle du point de vue sociétal
  • Caveat méthodologique
  • Véhicules électrifiés et compétitivité
  • Politiques publiques chinoises et risques pour la compétitivité européenne
  • Les bénéfices obtenus sont uniques dans le cas de l’électrification du parc automobile

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Working Paper n° 2011-03-03

Olivia RICCI and Sandrine SELOSSE, Global and regional potential for bioelectricity with carbon capture and storage

Among technological options to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage technology (BECCS) is gaining increasing attention. This option offers a unique opportunity for a net removal of atmospheric CO2 while it fulfills energy needs. This results analysis appears in line with the growing body of literature using bottom-up energy models and shows that BECCS has an important role to play in the future energy mix. Most of those studies focus on BECCS global potential whereas it is of interest to understand where this mitigation will be deployed. This key issue will strongly depends on regions’ biomass resources and storage sites endowment. The aim of this study is to assess the global and regional potential of BECCS up to 2050 and to compare it to the deployment of CCS in the power generation. This analysis is conducted with the global multiregional TIAM-FR optimization model. Investigated climate policy scenarios led to a considerable expansion of renewable energy and CCS and BECCS technologies in the power sector. CCS from fossil fuel is mainly deployed in fast developing countries, well endowed with coal and, BECCS is highly distributed in developing countries even if biomass resources are widely available in all regions. This response to carbon constraint is however dependent of the consideration of CO2 negative emissions and of the incentives and appropriate policies created by States. In addition, it required the development of a regulatory framework, sustained R,D&D and infrastructures investments.
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Working Paper n° 2011-02-02

Edi ASSOUMOU and Nadia MAIZI, Analysis of the effect of environmental policies on the allocation of natural gas accross end-use sectors in France, CMA, MINES ParisTech.

Representing 20% of the world primary energy supply, natural gas is a key component of today’s energy systems. Its lower carbon content per unit of energy, its versatility and relative abundance make it a strategic fuel for addressing both the world’s future demand for energy and the climate change concern. Hence several medium-term projections advocate the increased use of natural gas. Yet while its contribution as a solution to the climate change issue is positive in comparison to more carbonated fossil energy sources, which represent 60% of the world primary energy supply, burning natural gas has an absolute negative emission contribution. How then are its projected uses affected by stringent environmental policies? For what end-use is it the best candidate? In this paper we address these questions for France, which is the fourth largest natural gas market in the European Union and has a 97% import dependency. We focus on end-use sectors and we quantify the evolution of gas allocation up to 2050.Our results highlight significant reductions in the expected growth rate before 2030, followed by a clear decrease that brings the natural gas industry back to its current levels. In a case where it does not succeed in securing a significant market share in the transport sector, consumption in 2050 evens out at around 1990 levels. We quantify the dependency on technological developments for gasification technologies and natural gas-fueled vehicles, and highlight the sensitivity of cross-sector allocation to import prices.
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Working Paper n° 2011-01-01

Frédéric GHERSI, The Policy Path to Low-Carbon Society, CIRED.

This paper provides a survey of the policies and measures that are asso-ciated to low carbon societies in the recent literature, both peer-reviewed and “grey”. A first section focuses on carbon pricing, the policy measure most frequently represented.
It starts by analysing the somewhat confusing use made of carbon pricing expertise in policy reports emanating from the French and the British governments, then reviews some modelling results on carbon pricing in a “second best” world, and concludes on the acknowledged limits of this central policy instrument.
A second section lists an impressive collection of more focused policy instruments that are advocated in both governmental and non-governmental literature.
It insists on the contrast between the high degree of precision of some of these policy proposals, and the absence of scientific assessment of their impacts, either from an environmental or an economic point of view. A third section concludes on the research agenda emerging from this hiatus between the large body of scientific literature devoted to carbon pricing, and the policy relevance of much more focused policy instruments.
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